The finding continues to amaze. Despite the turmoil from the sub-prime crisis, Latin America is indeed. The old adage that "when the U.S. sneezes, the Latin American cold" did have more reason to be For ages, yet the bursting of bubbles spent Río Bravo to infect seriously South. Each has in memory in the dark year, 1931, after the crash of Wall Street in 1929, or the debt crisis, born in 1982 after us rates soaring decided by Paul Volcker to curb us inflation, not to mention 1994 crisis "Tequila" which shook the Mexico. Historians remind us that this dependence, originally of wood or severe shocks gules, dates back to the 19th century. In 1825, the financial crash of the financial centre of the planet, London, a year longer causes later the first crisis of Latin American countries since their independence, as noted in an article Eric Toussaint, President of the Committee for the cancellation of the debt of the third world (CADTM). The impact of a further stock market crash, in Vienna this time in 1873, followed by another in New York will be also daunting.
By following this principle, the crisis in the market of mortgage risk, part of the United States, has evolved into a global financial crisis, should already have impact in Latin America. As all the multilateral institutions, the IMF at the OECD, build on a sharp economic slowdown in the North this year, some analysts announcing a recession in the us. "Fifteen or twenty years ago, these conditions would have been sufficient to bring down Latin American economies," noted recently two economists of the American Enterprise Institute (1). Before concluding that they remain and will yet remain "relatively calm".
With some caution, the international monetary Fund (IMF) also emphasized in its economic Outlook published in April that the region faced the financial turbulence "in a much better position than in the past". There are many reasons for this resistance of the system of banking and finance in the region. Latin America, despite large differences in management and various fortunes from one country to another, the Sage Brazil to the turbulent Venezuela, first fired, painfully, the lessons of the past and the accumulation of external debts to consumerism. Julio Maria Sanguinetti, twice President of the Uruguay (1985-1995), had this beautiful phrase: "the banking system will never lead you to paradise, but can rush you to hell."
Comments which have had an echo in a region where it is is engineered, according to the economists of the IMF in 2004, to develop "the resilience of financial systems." With notable exceptions, most Latin American countries have adopted the banking reforms and developed domestic savings to reduce their dependence on external borrowing. Is it to say that financial orthodoxy prevailed, as the spread of democracy, and has helped countries such as the Brazil, leading economic power in the region, to move away, or even divorce the United States Certainly not. If the United States were aware of a deep recession, the South would suffer serious consequences. The IMF has already predicted a slowdown in growth, limited to 4.4 this year and 3.6 in 2009 after 5.6 in 2007 for the entire region. Not to mention that the countries of Latin America are not from internal crises. The Dominican Republic was given as an example of effective economy before be hit by a Bank failed in 2003 following a political scandal.
Nothing is simple. If the "decoupling" between the North and South is not yet the order of the day, the reason is elsewhere. For decoupling, explains Javier Santiso, Director of the OECD development centre, this would require that there be a "periphery" separates a centre. However, according to the Economist, there is a decentering of the world with the proliferation of new centres and a former, the US, less and less dominant. This movement is made for the benefit of Asia, China in mind, but also to a lesser extent of the India. For Javier Santiso, China has proven to be an "Angel trading partner." Chinese and Indian, energy demand, the price of oil and gas boom are a bonanza for exporters as the Venezuela, the Mexico, the Bolivia, or Ecuador. Similarly, Beijing has become a major importer of Brazilian and Argentine products with soybeans as head or copper Chile and Peru. A providential partner that has helped many countries to replenish their reserves. After the United States and Europe, back in the 1990s in Latin America, it is the third Asian actor which is changing the subcontinent us, gives as it does in Africa.
This is not immunisera these countries against the internal or external shocks. Too much dependence in some countries for raw materials did not reduce the inequalities between rich and poor on the continent. In some cases, she has even aggravated and contribute to high inflation. And because managed to be genuine regional integration, the Latin America remains sensitive to the turbulence of any kind. Should it follow the European path and go for the raw materials, as was the case with the European Community of coal and steel (ECSC), to strengthen its economy and its solidarity Some people think. But the arrival of a third actor of Asian can be beneficial for a region long regarded as the square of the United States pre. Decidedly, the world is "unipolar" but although "multipolar".