The concern of the markets remains high with some members of the euro area countries. Friday, the cost of the CDS (credit default swaps", the price of insurance against the risk of default) affected States had a day in two stages. Spreads are strained in the morning, before returning to levels below those of the previous day. "Some investors appear to have closed their positions before the weekend break," j. Nicolas Forest, responsible for the rates in Dexia Asset Management strategy. However, this withdrawal does not alter the bottom trend and CDS remain, for the three countries concerned, in particular high levels: they have completed the day of Friday at 406 points for Greece, 226 points to the Portugal and 166 points for the Spain. By the level of concern persistent that it reveals, this trend is already the issue of the financing of sovereign debt. Market shares, rates and currencies, there is currently a spectacular return of risk aversion. This aspect appears to be crucial in determining the coming trading days.
The euro continued its fall
Earthquakes are being felt on the foreign exchange market. The risk aversion weighs on the euro, continued its slide. The single currency is now between 1.36 and 1.37 dollar. This is not so much the level itself money impresses - even if it falls to lowest for about nine months - that the speed of the movement: ten days ago, the euro still exceed 1.40 dollar bar. This movement is accompanied by, symmetrically from a strengthening of the dollar. And not only against the euro. The dollar index - comprising a basket of 6 currency, currency single s ' displays at the top for at least six months.
A strong dollar could hamper us firms to export, in an environment of growth yet to consolidate. The figures for employment in the United States, published Friday, did not say a trend for the country's economy. "This is not a blessing for European companies, considers Jean-Louis Mourier, an economist at Aurel. The euro remains volatile and does not allow European companies to adapt.
These uncertainties on the activity of enterprises logically weigh on stock markets. On this front, the adjustment begun in mid-January has been a blow of accelerator, marked on the stock exchanges of the indebted countries (Madrid, Lisbon), and then click places all stock. "This is not so much the possibility of future plans of rigour which weighs on markets, commented Jean-François Robin, strategist at Natixis bond, for the moment, it is the risk aversion dominates.". Investors turn away therefore considered as too risky assets. Among the sectors concerned, banks "which, among other factors of uncertainty on their balance sheets, are the main purchasers of sovereign securities", underscores Jean-François Robin.
The adjustment is accelerating
When investors fear more actions, they turn to market bond, but showing selective. "Rates have declined significantly over the 10 years American and German, said Nicolas Forest. This relaxation of the rates of the countries considered by the markets as the safest naturally occurred over the Greece, the Spain and the Portugal, fueling de facto the risk of contagion. "It remains to know if other compartments of the debt market will also deteriorate. Index Markit CDX North America Investment Grade, which covers 125 values considered as safe, remains at a high level and shows a level of concern increased also on debt companies.
Finally, on paper, there are other countries, both inside and outside the euro zone, whose debt levels have nothing to envy to the Greece. Only point to some observers, they are not a problem of credibility or political stability. It is precisely on this land that is at stake, the output of this sequence. "10 Years and 15 emissions are planned this month for the Portugal, the Spain and the Greece", note Jean-François Robin. The response of the markets will be figure of barometer.