14 of the capital of the producer of Platinum

The approach of the date deadline imposed on Xstrata by the British regulator of the OPA, on 2 October, so that it formalizes its intentions for Lonmin, the horizon is much thinned. The hypothesis that the Swiss is countered by alternative and friendly bid on the number three of Platinum has lost credibility over time. Monday, Mvelaphanda Resources, a powerful South African mining holding controlled by close black interests of the ANC, has denied rumours of preparation, with Aquarius Platinum, of counterproposal on Lonmin. Aquarius has said that no formal negotiations was committed.

Volumes traded on the title of Lonmin side London show no particular appetite for this company, Xstrata already holds 11 of shares. These prices, which had climbed to 34,79 books end August on speculation of counter, fell around 30 books today, or 2 pounds less than the original proposal all in cash made sketch August 6 by the Swiss. Which, in passing, represents a great opportunity for some Fund activists to make fast money, regardless of the Lonmin takeover scenario, which will eventually prevail. Tuesday, one of them, Atticus Management Limited, took 1.14 of the capital of the producer of Platinum.

At the same time, Xstrata is working actively in the financing of the transaction at about $ 9 billion. "We have no difficulty" in this field said yesterday at the "echoes" a spokesman for the Swiss group.

Commercial benefits

Paradoxically, the best current strength of the Swiss is the Platinum prices plummeting. Dark edge of 1,200 dollars, its low for eighteen months, the once dropped almost half of its value since its record in meeting on 4 March this year (2.301,4 dollars). Funds stall speed of the complex of the precious, even while US sales of cars are more evil for fifteen years. For memory, nearly 60 of global demand of Platinum emanate systems of catalysis for automobile manufacturers. "The ball of the outcome of the proposed acquisition of Lonmin is in the camp of the price of Platinum," confirms Leon Esterhuizen, analyst at RBC Capital Markets. The recent evolution of the courses do argues for a rehabilitation of the hostile offer of Xstrata, has it.

Yet, the M & G Investments, Fund which holds about 17 of the capital of Lonmin, does not seem to release supported and purported Swiss improved proposal. But, as recalled by Charles Cooper, analyst at Evolution Securities, the absence of a White Knight "leaves the hands-free" in Xstrata especially top management of the producer of Platinum was not always demonstrated a great capacity for defence.

If Lonmin falls into the fold of Xstrata, it fare trade advantages, said Leon Esterhuizen. The strength of the world leader in the trading of raw materials, the other Swiss Glencore, reference shareholder of Xstrata already in charge of the sale of a substantial part of the products, is undeniable, it goes. It is however less assured that Xstrata will be able to do much better that the current management in terms of managing the operations of Lonmin, concludes the expert.