Despite the rebound in the third quarter of 2007, many economists believe that us growth will fall back below 2 in 2008. The impact of this downturn ahead but less strong that one might think on the Canada and the Mexico, related to the United States by the NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Association. In the 1980s, the US slowdown is was directly transmitted to the two countries border and the peak of dependency has been reached in 1999-2000, the share of the United States in the exports of the approaching Canada 85 and 90 in the case of the Mexico. This dependence is much less clear today, noted in a recent note, Nathalie Dezeure, an economist at Natixis (see chart).
Despite the slump in the United States from the second half of 2006, the growth of the Canadian and Mexican economies have little accused at the time, and should remain virtually stable next year, respectively at 2.4 and 3.1. To establish its 2008 budget, the Mexican Government has even provided 3.7 growth (3 in 2007). The Bank makes two types of reasons for this "emancipation". On the one hand, their economies are very open (the exports represent about 40 of GDP), but "the evolution of the structure of exports attenuated the recessive effects of the US slowdown." The part of the United States in these exports indeed tends to decrease even if it is very important (about 83 for the Mexico, 76.5 for the Canada in the first half of 2007). "But the entry stage of China and, to a lesser extent, the India early 2000 resulted in a reallocation of us imports and, consequently, Mexican and Canadian exports," said the study. They are redirected to Europe, Asia (and South America with respect to the Mexico). The share of primary products also plays. It represents one third of exports, crude oil weighing more than 16 of the Mexico.
On the other hand, the Bank said, in both cases, the dynamism of the domestic demand. It is that Canada's GDP grew by an average of 3 per year in recent years, and the trend should continue with the good conditions of employment (unemployment only 5.8) and wages.
Same diagnosis to the Mexico: progression of consumption and increase in investment (8.4) supported activity between 2004 and 2006 (3.9 of average annual growth). In addition, oil revenues "gives the Government a significant budgetary margin". In fact, expenditures of budget 2008 Felipe Calderon, just be approved overwhelmingly by Parliament, are up 10 from 2007 and social credits are "the highest in history", dixit Mexico.
Finally, stresses Natixis, the rising prices of raw materials, oil in head, can improve the terms of trade in the exporting countries of the Canada and the Mexico, with positive effects on the purchasing power.
What to conclude that the two "satellite" of the first economy in the world are more on the orbit and, by extension, the air hole that the United States have experienced should have "an impact moderate global growth".