They agiottent as once the characters of Balzac

In the current crisis, should we talk about figures Yes! It becomes essential to understand the origin of the twitch, its seriousness and exit Outlook.

The origin of the crisis dates back to the 1980s. The rapid decline in interest rates and the authorization to pay deposits had effect begin to roll the operation of most of the banks accounts. It took them react quickly, as these transformations were perennial, triggered in part by new technologies. No going back was an option.

Therefore, deregulation moved to the United States and spread abroad. It allowed commercial banks to engage in intermediation, i.e. out most traditional assets from their balance sheets, taking the crossing a commission.

This new phase of banking activity was often committed without sufficient control and experience leading teams, boards of Directors and the internal and external oversight bodies.

This double movement of deregulation and intermediation was amplified by the possibilities of individual gains at all levels unprecedented. Therefore, $ 30 billion were distributed by a large Bank of business to its employees in a few years.

The conditions were thus met for market grow in a rapid manner. The figures beyond understanding. In December 2007, the global outstanding derivatives all exceeded the million of billions of dollars! At this scale, the 700 billion United States dollars seem a drop of water.

If such figures are common in science (1 million billion is the unit of reference of the number of data processed per second by the Los Alamos laboratories IBM computer), they are extremely rare references in economics.

The sphere of the real economy is characterized by smaller numbers: the total of the produced wealth each year by the world economy is of about 50,000 billion. The value of the stock of real estate across the world is of the order of 75,000 billion. The value in the scale of the planet of all obligations and actions is estimated at 100,000 billion.

In the case of major banks in the world, the total of the products listed on their books could have reached 140,000 billion. Beyond this amount, which makes the situation more difficult to manage, it is that a large part of these financial products are traded off-market, OTC, and that they are often a rare technical complexity.

But where comes from the explosion in the volume of derivatives The answer lies in the behaviour of all economic agents. Governments, companies, banks, insurance, funds, and individuals use derivatives. They buy often their mobile phone. They "agiottent" as once the characters of Balzac.

But this huge ball of derivatives began to unravel. Can continue to contract without triggering an inevitable crisis, like that announced the German philosopher Oswald Spengler on the eve of the first world war He then spoke of extreme risk that was run in the global economy the dematerialization of the money, he baptized in the language of the time "the sublimation of the money."

While is it today Are we doomed to recession unprecedented The answer is clearly no. But we must act with caution. Before this mountain of derivatives and financial risks, should first do not give birth to a mouse.

The first requirement is the need to preserve a global base of trust. How By continuing to avoid at all costs a new cross Bank. The market cannot tolerate the failure of a new single player. The intervention on Fortis demonstrates awareness. It is essential to save time.

In addition, we will not the economy of an effective coordination on a global scale. The term must be understood in its etymological sense "order with". A group of leading central bankers will have to refine and implement a new vision of financial activity. The Bank for International Settlements (bis) drew the contours. The political and economic emergency command to take the necessary measures.